Hayward Fault Initiative


The goal of the Hayward Fault Initiative is to promote risk reduction locally, by providing updated information on the consequences of a Hayward fault earthquake and actively encouraging risk reduction programs.  This initiative builds on the 1996 EERI document describing a Hayward Fault Scenario.

Watch a video overview of the Hayward Fault Scenario update as a chapter-by-chapter playlist on YouTube!

Hayward Fault Scenario Update 2010
The online version of “The Coming Bay Area Earthquake, 2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault” (PDF file, 3.5 MB) is now available. In the 2010 update, the significant points from the 1996 report are summarized and then updated information is provided. Where possible, original chapter authors were interviewed and many assisted in updating their contributions.

Downloadable Resources:

  1. Complete Report: “The Coming Bay Area Earthquake, 2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault” (PDF file, 3.5 MB)
  2. A video summarizing the 2012 update can be found at the EERI YouTube Channel
  3. Summary 17-slide Presentation, fully annotated (PPT file, 18 MB)
  4. Comprehensive 72-slide Presentation, fully annotated (PPT file, 59 MB)

A similar theme emerges from each area of concern: significant progress has been made, but there remain many opportunities for more strategic loss reduction. The 2010 update of the scenario is a Call to Action for the San Francisco Bay Area. As the document states, “Ten years into the new century, we have not yet reached an acceptable level of seismic safety, and it is clearly necessary for earthquake professionals to continue their advocacy. But they must take their message beyond enclosed spaces out to the stakeholders in whatever arena they can be found. Every private property owner in the Bay Area must come to understand the losses each and all of us will face, and how those impacts will harm the quality of life we enjoy in this unique part of the world.”

Hayward Fault Scenario 1996
The printed version of “Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault” (PDF file, 16 MB) was published 1996; it grew out of a day-long symposium held during the 1995 Annual Meeting of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. It drew on the knowledge and advice of many of the region’s experts in the fields of earth and life sciences, earthquake engineering, social sciences, and emergency management. The multi-disciplinary team developed a broad, unbiased portrayal of the issues that surround the vulnerability of the region to a major earthquake. For more information about the 1996 effort, visit Hayward Fault Scenario web page.

EERI’s experience in creating this scenario facilitated the development of the Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault, also available in printed and electronic formats, co-published in 2005 by EERI and the Emergency Management Division of the Washington Military Department.

For more information or with questions about this activity, contact chapter member Janiele Maffei who is leading this effort.

EERI Northern California Chapter | c/o EERI National | 499 14th Street Suite 320 | Oakland, CA 94612-1934 USA | chapterinfo@eerinc.org